US Retail Analysts Shell-gaming Black Friday Results: ECONOMISTAN Economic Analysis Think Tank

"the US is only 10% into their cycle of bank failures with a large part of them to come from commercial real estate losses..."

It is quickly becoming evident that US retail analysts have much ado about nothing when it comes to deciphering the recent results of "Black Friday's" sales reports! In fact, one quickly gets the sense that they're shell-gaming the public media while pathetically talking themselves giddy with "smile, and they will come"!

Please don't get me wrong, if you have something to toot your horn about, I will be one of the first to say, "let's party", but to break-even shows me no cause to go springing for party hats and cigars. According to retailer's Chief Marketing Officers, "thee Friday's" sales overall actually increased 0.5% over a year ago, while analysts had been hoping for 1.8%. Keep in mind, this is "sales activity" we're talking here, not profits. ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago based research firm went on to insist that this means that their overall prediction for "the holiday season" of 1.6% was still on-track. Unfortunately, the most vital part of all this data remains the least publicized. What stores across the board did this year, more than any other shopping season since the Great Depression was put "at cost" lure items out, which would only be on sale for 24 to 48 hours. What people bought were mainly laptops going for under $300, 40" flat TV's going for under $500 and insulated, reversible vests selling for $7.50!

The majority of items making up the much bally-hooed sales figures were being sold "at cost" and were limited supply merchandise used to lure in the crowds. Companies know this, but so far no one's talking about "profits". Need I remind our overly optimistic marketing officers that the US is only at the beginning of it's tsunami-like, tidal wave in commercial real estate foreclosures and bank failures. According to Creditsights, an independent research firm, which is employee-owned with offices in New York and London, the US is only 10% into their cycle of bank failures with a large part of them to come from commercial real estate losses. Their analysts go on to estimate that between 2008 and 2011 there will be a total of 1,100 US bank failures. This means, we can expect a total of 13.4% of all US banks to go under. In studying Creditsight's figures, it reveals that 80% of the failed institutions will likely have at least 50% of their assets tied up in commercial real estate loans.This will put even more stress on the FDIC to cover deposits! I don't know about those retail analysts folks back at ShopperTrak, but I'm going to hold off buying any party hats or cigars until after the Myan calendar runs out!

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I was born in Manhattan and patted on the head at the age of 3 by Howard Hughes on the steps of an old New York A&P which had sawdust on the floors. I've had close associations with former vice presidents of Aetna, Merrill Lynch, IBM, Smith Barney and Black Enterprise and was previously in wholesale distribution for Polo Ralph Lauren. After I married, I remained in China for 3 years doing business language coaching, conceptual instructions, negotiations and research for 25 separate organizations and companies such as Total-Fina-Elf, Rockwell Automation, Whirlpool, New Oriental School, Nanhua University of Industry and Commerce, Sci-Head Patient Lawyers and True Alaska Bottling. I'm currently employed with a small publishing firm in Palo Alto, CA.